Nate Silver 538 2024 Presidential Predictions 2024. Vice president kamala harris inched ahead of former president donald trump by the narrowest of margins in both polling guru nate silver and fivethirtyeight’s final. The silver bulletin presidential model is the same model that i developed and published when i worked for fivethirtyeight from 2008 through 2023.

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election by clicking states on this interactive map. See the average results of recent polls for the 2024 presidential general election, by state and nationally, with adjustments for quality, sample size and recency.